Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
